Housing Growth and Medicine Hat's Stagnation

The numbers don’t lie, though they might make some uncomfortable. Across Alberta, housing starts are surging like an over-caffeinated snowblower. The provincewide housing starts from January to November 2024 rose by 35%, with Calgary and Edmonton growing by 25% and 48%, respectively. Red Deer, despite being a smaller center, impressively ramped up housing starts by 90%, from 180 to 342 units. These cities are booming, evidently unbothered by administrative roadblocks or brand-damaging politicking.

Now, let's turn to Medicine Hat, the Horseshoe City—though lately, it feels like we’re being led by donkeys. Housing starts here dropped to 29 homes in 2024, down from 77 in 2023 and 174 in 2022. This represents a 62% drop from 2023 and a staggering 83% collapse from 2022. Stagnant is putting it lightly; we’re in freefall. For perspective, Medicine Hat produced 10.6% of Red Deer’s housing starts this year, despite Red Deer’s population being only about double ours.

The Math Speaks Volumes

Over the past two years:

• Edmonton added 5,512 more homes from 2023 to 2024 (a 48% increase).

• Calgary added 4,566 homes in the same period (a 25% increase).

• Red Deer, despite its smaller scale, added 162 homes, a 90% jump.

• Medicine Hat built only 29 homes in 2024, miniscule growth. At this rate, our city may soon boast more tumbleweeds than new builds.

A Dwindling Advantage and Mismanagement

Medicine Hat has long marketed itself as Alberta's utility powerhouse, offering lower electricity rates and affordable living. However, as provincial infrastructure and policy shift toward renewables and energy diversification, our utility advantage no longer carries the weight it once did. Worse, the city's ability to retain or attract businesses is further undermined by political infighting and a series of baffling administrative decisions.

The appointment of City Manager Ann Mitchell in January 2023 seems to have been the final nail in the proverbial housing coffin. Mitchell’s aggressive reorganization of the city’s corporate structure, reportedly done without council’s explicit direction or consent, has created chaos. Even Mayor Linnsie Clark—no stranger to criticism herself—has accused Mitchell of withholding crucial budget materials, delaying any semblance of transparent governance.

The housing data suggest a causal link between poor municipal management and declining investment in new construction. Medicine Hat’s 2022 housing starts were six times higher than in 2024, so blaming COVID-19 is nonsensical. That excuse doesn’t hold water when neighboring cities are breaking records.

Shady Contractors and Accountability Issues

Medicine Hat’s housing stagnation isn’t just about fewer homes; it’s also about how city projects are managed. Allegations of contractors going over budget with little oversight are not new. The city's tendency to scapegoat external factors while avoiding introspection has left contractors, businesses, and residents alike frustrated. Medicine Hat's communication department has devolved into farce, with messages so opaque they’d make a snowstorm look like crystal-clear skies.

The Cost of Drama on the Brand

City council’s ongoing drama, marked by bureaucratic reshuffles and public spats, is not only embarrassing but brand-damaging. What company or developer wants to wade into this mess? When Red Deer—a city half our size in the mid-2000s—grows its housing starts by 90%, and we’re shrinking, it’s fair to wonder whether our politics have become toxic to economic development.

This is Canada in winter: cold, dark, and prime time for governments to pull the wool over our eyes. But the numbers don’t lie. Medicine Hat is not keeping pace with Alberta’s growth. It's not inflation, nor externalities, nor COVID-19. It's poor management, plain and simple.

If Medicine Hat wants to avoid becoming a case study in municipal decline, the city needs more than rhetoric. It needs vision, competent leadership, and—dare we say—a willingness to self-reflect. Until then, the rest of Alberta will keep growing while Medicine Hat digs itself a deeper hole.