Alberta’s Sovereignty Gambit: How Danielle Smith’s Referendum Play Risks National Unity
Smith has beef, or is it pork?
Trump Might Be Watching this drama! Alberta lowering the Bar for separatism, While Denying it’s about a beef with the Liberal Feds. (will 51st staters write an MOU?)
The Sovereignty Tightrope
Premier Danielle Smith insists she believes in "Alberta sovereignty within a united Canada." But her government’s latest move—a bill making it easier to launch referendums, including one on independence—has critics accusing her of dangling Alberta over the cliff of separatism while pretending she doesn’t see the drop.
The Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2025, introduced Tuesday, slashes the signature threshold for citizen-led referendums to just 10% of the previous election’s voters (about 177,000 Albertans). Smith frames it as democratic empowerment: "This is enabling direct democracy. I think we should embrace it."
But her party’s president, Rob Smith, wasn’t as subtle. On Facebook, he declared the bill offers "the pathway some of you are seeking today"—a nod to the growing #Wexit movement. When a commenter demanded "a path charting to independence or the 51st state," the president replied: "Please read her announcement. It’s in there."
The NDP isn’t buying Smith’s denials. Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi blasted the premier as a "separatist" in a fiery press release, listing Smith’s hardline policies: the Alberta Sovereignty Act, dismantling the RCMP, and the stalled-but-not-dead push for an Alberta Pension Plan. “This isn’t just about her blowing smoke like she likes to do. This is actually putting our nation at risk. This is threatening and it’s dangerous.” Nenshi said.
The Separatist Surge
Since the federal Liberals won re-election on April 29, Alberta’s separatist fringe has gone mainstream. An independence petition, stagnant since 2019, has exploded from 7,000 to 200,000 signatures. Rallies are planned, including one at the legislature this week.
Smith’s cabinet is toeing the line. When asked if the premier is a separatist, Justice Minister Mickey Amery replied: "She’s never spoken about anything other than a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada. Do I believe her? Yes."
The Constitutional Clash
Carbon capture handshake…
Smith’s government is also escalating its war with Ottawa, referring the federal net-zero electricity regulations to Alberta’s Court of Appeal. The rules, finalized in December 2024, demand a carbon-neutral grid by 2035—a target Smith calls "unachievable" and "unconstitutional."
"Why would we risk blackouts for an ideological target?" Smith asked, citing AESO warnings of 35% higher costs and 100x less grid reliability. Her argument hinges on Section 92 of the Constitution, which grants provinces control over electricity generation.
But Prime Minister Mark Carney isn’t backing down. His minority government, propped up by the Bloc Québécois, faces a delicate balancing act: appeasing climate advocates while avoiding a prairie revolt.
The Trump Factor
Enter Donald Trump. The U.S. president’s recent quip—"Canadians should just vote for me next time"—was dismissed as a joke, but his interest in Canada’s resources is deadly serious.
The Ring of Fire, Ontario’s mineral-rich mega-deposit (nickel, copper, platinum, and chromite critical for EVs), is in Trump’s crosshairs. So is Alberta’s oil. With Smith’s government already clashing with Ottawa, Trump could exploit the rift—pushing for energy deregulation or even annexation whispers under the guise of "continental energy security."
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet has warned of Trump’s "incompetent brute" tactics, vowing temporary unity to resist U.S. pressure. But if Alberta bolts, Quebec might not be far behind.
The Endgame
Smith insists she’s fighting for a "fair deal"—not divorce. This summer, she’ll launch a province-wide panel to define what that means. But with separatists emboldened, Trump lurking, and Ottawa digging in, her balancing act grows shakier by the day.
"I’ll gauge the prime minister’s actions," Smith said. "We’ll know quickly if he’s serious."
Translation: Alberta’s patience—and Canada’s unity—hangs by a thread.
Key sources:
Alberta Hansard (June 4, 2025)
UCP Facebook statements
NDP press release: "Danielle Smith is a Separatist"
Recordings of “Alberta Pension Plan” aka “Alberta Prosperity Project”
Federal Court filings (net-zero challenge)
